Brewers Dodgers NLCS Game 4: Sweep or Response?

The Brewers beat the Dodgers 6-2 on Wednesday to take a 3-0 NLCS lead, with Jake Bauers and Garrett Mitchell hitting back-to-back seventh-inning homers off Blake Snell. Milwaukee can eliminate the two-time defending World Series champions in Game 4 on Thursday at Dodger Stadium.

That leaves two questions for bettors: can Milwaukee finish the sweep, and is Los Angeles worth backing to extend the series? We think the Brewers have earned plenty of confidence, but their unannounced Game 4 starter leaves a big gap in the picture. A 3-0 series lead isn't a pitching matchup.

How the seventh inning changed Game 3

According to ESPN's published Associated Press recap, Snell entered the seventh having retired 14 consecutive batters. The Dodgers had just taken their first lead of the series, 2-1, on Will Smith's two-run double in the sixth.

Andrew Vaughn opened the seventh with a seven-pitch walk, and Christian Yelich replaced him as a pinch-runner. Bauers then hit the 11th pitch of his at-bat 412 feet to right field, putting Milwaukee ahead 3-2. Mitchell followed with a 428-foot solo homer to right-center, ending Snell's outing.

Those home runs turned a one-run deficit into a two-run lead. The work before Bauers' swing deserves attention too: a seven-pitch walk followed by an 11-pitch at-bat made Snell keep finding answers after a long stretch of dominance.

Snell finished with four runs allowed on four hits in six innings, with nine strikeouts and two walks. Jackson Chourio had homered on his first pitch of the game; Mitchell homered on his last. An unpleasant pair of bookends for Los Angeles.

Why the Dodgers' offensive problems matter

Milwaukee added runs in the eighth and ninth, but the 6-2 score also reflected another frustrating night for the Los Angeles lineup. The Dodgers had runners aboard in all but three innings, according to the AP recap. They still haven't homered in this NLCS.

Smith's double was his first hit of the series, after he entered the game hitting .043. It came after Abner Uribe walked Teoscar Hernández, Kyle Tucker and Shohei Ohtani to load the bases. Los Angeles had an opening, but one productive swing wasn't enough to offset Milwaukee's response.

Ohtani went 1 for 2 with a walk while batting sixth, his lowest lineup position since joining the Dodgers three years ago. We wouldn't treat that lineup slot alone as a reason to back or oppose Los Angeles in Game 4. We'd focus instead on whether the Dodgers can turn their baserunners into more runs.

ESPN's Game 4 preview lists Los Angeles with a .201 batting average over its last 10 games, compared with Milwaukee's .277. That suggests the offensive gap extends beyond one difficult night against the Brewers.

Brewers Dodgers NLCS Game 4 pitching outlook

Tyler Glasnow is the Dodgers' probable starter, while Milwaukee's starter remains TBD in ESPN's preview. Glasnow is listed at 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and 98 strikeouts. Those numbers give us something to assess on one side, but not yet a complete matchup.

First, we'd wait for Milwaukee's pitching announcement. We'd want to know who starts and what role the Brewers expect that pitcher to handle before deciding which side to back. There's little point in judging a matchup built around a guessed starter.

The bullpen matters after Game 3, too. Uribe followed rookie starter Robert Gasser, DL Hall took over from Uribe, and Trevor Megill entered in the eighth. Those appearances don't establish anyone's Game 4 availability, so we'd look for confirmation rather than assume Milwaukee will use its relievers the same way.

ESPN lists Brandon Woodruff on the 60-day injured list with a shoulder injury and Quinn Priester on the 60-day IL with a wrist injury. Neither belongs in a projected Game 4 pitching plan. Until Milwaukee names its starter, we'd hold off on a firm matchup verdict.

What the form and series history actually tell us

The Brewers are one win from reversing last year's NLCS, when the Dodgers eliminated them in four games. Milwaukee has never beaten Los Angeles in their three previous postseason series, according to the AP recap. That history explains the significance of a potential Brewers sweep, not what the next pitch will do.

ESPN's preview gives Milwaukee the stronger recent results. In our view, it also offers a reason not to dismiss the Dodgers at home:

• Milwaukee is 9-1 over its last 10 games, with a 2.22 ERA and an 18-run scoring advantage.
• Los Angeles is 6-4 over its last 10, with a 2.73 ERA and a five-run scoring advantage.
• The Brewers lead this season's meetings 7-3 and went 48-33 on the road during the regular season.
• The Dodgers went 51-30 at home during the regular season.

A Dodgers comeback from 3-0 down requires winning Game 4 first. The franchise's only previous 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven postseason series ended in a sweep by Baltimore in the 1966 World Series. That parallel adds weight to the story, but we wouldn't use it to judge Glasnow's chances against this lineup.

What bettors should check before backing either side

ESPN's Game 4 preview lists Los Angeles at -167, Milwaukee at +136 and the total at 7.5 runs. Treat those as the preview's listed prices, not a promise of what you'll find when placing a bet. The Dodgers are favoured despite trailing 3-0.

We wouldn't back Los Angeles simply because a response feels overdue. We'd want confidence in Glasnow's matchup and a clearer picture of Milwaukee's pitching plan. Equally, Milwaukee's 9-1 stretch isn't enough on its own to make the sweep an automatic bet.

Before considering the total, we'd wait for the Brewers' starter announcement and confirmation of relief availability. We'd also check the Dodgers' lineup rather than assume Ohtani stays sixth. Wednesday's batting order doesn't confirm Thursday's plan.

You can review our track record and browse today's picks. Keep any wager within what you can afford to lose, and only bet if you meet the legal age requirement where you are.

Frequently asked questions

What was the Brewers Dodgers Game 3 score?

The Brewers beat the Dodgers 6-2 to take a 3-0 NLCS lead. Jake Bauers and Garrett Mitchell hit back-to-back seventh-inning home runs off Blake Snell.

Who is pitching in Brewers Dodgers NLCS Game 4?

ESPN's Game 4 preview lists Tyler Glasnow as the Dodgers' probable starter. Milwaukee's starter is listed as TBD.

What are the Brewers Dodgers Game 4 odds?

ESPN's preview lists the Dodgers at -167 and the Brewers at +136. The published total is 7.5 runs.

Can the Brewers sweep the Dodgers in the NLCS?

Yes. Milwaukee leads the series 3-0 and would advance to the World Series with a Game 4 win Thursday at Dodger Stadium.

Sources: Brewers stun Dodgers with back-to-back homers in 7th inning and take 3-0 lead in NLCS with 6-2 win (ESPN) · Brewers look to sweep Dodgers in NLCS Game 4 (ESPN) · Brewers stun Dodgers with back-to-back homers in 7th inning and ride 6-2 win to 3-0 lead in NLCS (wral.com) · Late-game homers send Brewers to 3-0 NLCS advantage over Dodgers (reuters.com) · Brewers stun Dodgers with back-to-back homers in 7th inning and take 3-0 lead in NLCS with 6-2 win (valleycentral.com) · Jake Bauers was ready to retire. Now, his relentless at-bats have Brewers on brink of World Series (wral.com)