Guardians beat Rays ALCS Game 3, take 2-1 series lead

The Guardians beat the Rays 3-2 in ALCS Game 3 on Thursday, with Petey Halpin’s fifth-inning, two-run homer giving Cleveland a 2-1 series lead. According to ESPN’s game report, Gavin Williams struck out nine and four relievers protected the advantage.

Cleveland is now two wins from the American League pennant. But Friday’s Game 4 comes with an unannounced Guardians starter and rain in the forecast. In our view, those are reasons to look beyond the series score when assessing the matchup.

Guardians beat Rays ALCS Game 3: How Halpin flipped it

Nathaniel Lowe’s second-inning RBI double put a run on the board for Cleveland before Chandler Simpson’s two-run triple in the fourth gave Tampa Bay the lead. Then Patrick Bailey opened the bottom of the fifth with an infield single on a chop that Griffin Jax couldn’t field cleanly, according to ESPN.

Five pitches later, Halpin turned the game. On a 2-2 count, he drove an elevated 95.9 mph sinker 385 feet into the right-center seats, putting Cleveland ahead 3-2. That proved to be the final score.

Jax’s explanation was straightforward: “It was the right pitch. Just the wrong location.” Our read is that this was a costly execution mistake rather than a reason to dismiss the pitch selection. Halpin said he was looking to get the bat head out against something hard.

Halpin celebrated with a bat flip high over his head. More importantly for Cleveland, his homer turned a one-run deficit into a lead its pitching staff never surrendered.

Williams and the bullpen made three runs enough

Williams allowed two runs and one walk across five innings, striking out nine. ESPN reports that he is 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings across four postseason appearances, including three starts.

Tampa Bay finished with three hits and 13 strikeouts. After Williams, Daniel Espino, Erik Sabrowski, Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith allowed just one baserunner over the final four innings. Cleveland retired 16 of the Rays’ last 17 batters.

We think that matters as much as the homer when assessing Cleveland’s position. Halpin supplied the lead, but the Guardians still needed four innings without another Tampa Bay run. Their relievers delivered.

That doesn’t mean the same group will be equally available or effective Friday. The game report doesn’t include individual relief pitch counts, so we wouldn’t assume a repeat workload will be straightforward.

Why Halpin’s recent role matters

Thursday’s homer was Halpin’s first in the postseason and only his fifth overall across his two-year big league career, according to ESPN.

There is recent production behind the moment, though. Halpin had two doubles in his first postseason start in Game 5 of the ALDS and is 4 for 11 with a homer and two RBI over his past four games. He also hit a three-run homer against the White Sox on September 16 that put Cleveland atop the AL Central.

Stephen Vogt described a player who has moved between everyday duty, defensive replacement work and filling in for injured teammates. In our view, his lineup role deserves attention in Game 4, but four productive games aren’t enough to change expectations for his power hitting.

Bailey is another name to watch. The AP preview carried by ESPN lists him at 10 for 30 with four home runs over the past 10 games, and his infield single supplied the runner Halpin brought home Thursday.

Guardians Rays Game 4 preview: Who is pitching?

The AP preview published by ESPN lists Nick Martinez as Tampa Bay’s probable starter and Cleveland’s starter as TBD. That leaves an important part of the matchup unsettled. The preview also provides no detailed performance figures for Martinez.

The listed Game 4 details are:

• Location and time: Cleveland, Friday, October 16, at 8 p.m. EDT.
• Probable pitchers: Nick Martinez for Tampa Bay; Cleveland TBD.
• Moneyline: Rays -113, Guardians -108.
• Total: 6.5 runs.
• Weather: Rain is forecast, according to ESPN’s Game 3 report.

Those betting figures are from the published preview. We’d want Cleveland’s starter confirmed and the weather outlook clarified before making a firm matchup judgment.

Tampa Bay’s broader offensive record also deserves respect despite Thursday’s three-hit performance. The Rays had a .326 regular-season on-base percentage, sixth in MLB, and lead the season series 6-3. Cleveland’s pitchers posted a collective 3.77 ERA, eighth in the majors, according to the AP preview.

How close are the Guardians to the AL pennant?

Cleveland needs two more wins, while Tampa Bay needs three. The Guardians have also won five of their past six playoff games since falling behind the White Sox 2-0 in the ALDS, according to ESPN.

In our view, Cleveland has good reason for confidence after Game 3. Halpin delivered the decisive hit, Williams struck out nine and the bullpen kept Tampa Bay scoreless for four innings.

Still, the series isn’t settled. Cleveland’s Game 4 starter remains unannounced, and Tampa Bay leads the season series 6-3. We’d focus on the next pitching matchup rather than assume Thursday’s result tells us how the rest of the ALCS will go.

What should bettors watch before Game 4?

The first checkpoint is Cleveland’s starter, followed by bullpen availability and any weather-related scheduling changes. The AP preview also lists Guardians reliever Colin Holderman on the injured list with a wrist issue and Rhys Hoskins with a back issue. Those absences matter to the roster assessment, but they shouldn’t be used to invent an explanation for Thursday’s result.

Both teams are 6-4 over their past 10 games. Cleveland has a 2.86 ERA across that stretch and Tampa Bay a 3.00 ERA, according to the preview. Our preference is to examine the pitching plans rather than simply follow the latest winner.

You can check our track record and browse today’s picks. For this matchup, a confirmed Cleveland starter and clearer relief availability would influence our assessment more than another replay of the bat flip. Follow local age requirements and betting laws, and only bet what you can afford to lose.

Frequently asked questions

What was the Guardians vs. Rays ALCS Game 3 score?

Cleveland beat Tampa Bay 3-2 to take a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven ALCS. Petey Halpin hit the go-ahead, two-run homer in the fifth inning.

Who is pitching in Guardians vs. Rays ALCS Game 4?

The AP preview carried by ESPN lists Nick Martinez as Tampa Bay’s probable starter. Cleveland’s starter is listed as TBD, with Game 4 scheduled for Friday, October 16, at 8 p.m. EDT in Cleveland.

How many wins do the Guardians need to clinch the AL pennant?

The Guardians need two more wins. They lead Tampa Bay 2-1 in the best-of-seven ALCS.

What are the listed odds for Guardians vs. Rays Game 4?

The AP preview published by ESPN lists Tampa Bay at -113 and Cleveland at -108. The listed total is 6.5 runs.

Sources: Halpin’s go-ahead homer flips Game 3 as Guardians beat Rays 3-2 for 2-1 AL Championship Series lead (ESPN) · Guardians lead Rays 2-1 ahead of ALCS Game 4 (ESPN) · These Postgame Quotes Can't Be Missed Following Guardians Game 3 Rally in ALCS (si.com) · Gavin Williams keeps dealing as Guardians take ALCS lead (cleveland.com) · Halpin’s go-ahead homer flips Game 3 as Guardians beat Rays 3-2 for 2-1 AL Championship Series lead (kdhnews.com) · Guardians use dominant pitching to edge Rays, take 2-1 series lead (reuters.com)